Gustav headed to New Orleans?

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Post 3+ Months Ago

Not again....
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Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gustav returned to hurricane strength after it moved west of Jamaica with torrential rain today, picking up speed as it headed toward Cuba and the U.S. Gulf Coast cities that were ravaged by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Gustav is a model of the worst possible scenario for New Orleans.

Katrina started north of the islands, Gustav is probably going to come off the west-most tip of the islands.
What that means is that Gustav will have more time over open warm water to strengthen.
It's not good that Gustav has returned to hurricane strength before getting into the Gulf of Mexico, it can only strengthen once it gets there.

If this storm continues to move as slow as it has down south, and hits New Orleans as some anticipate, Katrina is going to look like an afternoon thunderstorm compared to Gustav.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

What I'm hearing is mandatory evacuation starts tomorrow. Voluntary has already begun.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

One of the scarry things is the erratic movement storms seem to be having when they get over land this season.

If Gustav makes landfall around New Orleans and displays the same behavior as it did over Haiti and that other storms have displayed, it could end up making landfall then side-stepping along the coastline instead of just heading inland.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

I hate to be the ass hole here, but I have absolutely no sentiment for people in New Orleans. They wanted to build a city somewhere, so they built levies and pumped out the water, then built the city under sea level. And when a big bad storm came they were surprised that it was so devastating. And then they wanted people to feel sorry for them because their homes and cities were wrecked. I do feel sorry for their losses, don't get me wrong, they lost their livelihoods and they're sense of security. But logic and common sense says that if it happens once it will probably happen again like we are anticipating now. If they have the same reaction this time as they did last time I will probably throw a brick at my television and scream.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

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If they have the same reaction this time as they did last time I will probably throw a brick at my television and scream.


well to be fair, there's not much difference between you watching the TV to see if they're going to do that, and them sitting there watching the TV to see if the storm is going to hit them. :)
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Post 3+ Months Ago

But the thing is that they know it has happened in recent history, and they are getting good warning that it is about to happen again. So if are shocked that something like that could happen to such a great and unique city like New Orleans then we'll just have to get out some 3 or 4 year old recorded news highlights to refresh their memories a little.

I live in tornado ally, and around here we accept it. Yes, when our towns are turned to rubble we do rebuild, but we just do it, we don't make a big deal about how much damage there was and how hard it is going to be to rebuild. We get a bull dozer and stuff and burry the rubble, then start over. A few years ago the entire town of Halem Nebraska was wiped off the map by a tornado, and now they are almost completely rebuilt. They did get federal assistance and stuff just like N.O., but they didn't go piling their dead bodies on the streets and start complaining about the stink.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

To be fair, i think you may have been too harsh here Kc0tma. When the bodies were on the street, it wasn't because they wanted to leave them there.

I can only go by what i've heard through various sources, but the government didn't treat Hurricane Katrina as a big thing for New Orleans in that they were agonisingly slow to get any assistance. With the death count there was there wasn't enough help from the goverment to rid the streets of the bodies which is why they would have been compaining about that.

You've also got to remember, and be a bit realistic here, that the people that live in New Orleans up until then hadn't faced a disaster of that size before. Yes the city was built under water, but unless you really think about things like that being a potential issue alot of people weren't going to care. I wouldn't be so surprised if alot of the people that were in New Orleans didn't even consider the "under water level" part prior or during the hurricane. And just one other thing, it was widely reported here that alot of the people that failed to flee the last time were people who had very little money and either chose not to leave their possessions in fear of luting or simply couldn't afford to leave. So, put all these situations together and you can understand why alot of people were upset.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

I think I have to lean toward siding with kc0tma. I mean the first time, the severity of the disaster was surprising even though everyone living there should have known it could have happened at anytime. But after seeing what Katrina did, what part of "Don't bother to rebuild a doomed city" didn't they understand? But they did anyway and moved back. Granted Joe your points are valid, but if I had lived in New Orleans the first time, you could be damned sure I would have bugged out of there even if all I left with was the shirt on my back.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

ATNO/TW wrote:
...but if I had lived in New Orleans the first time, you could be damned sure I would have bugged out of there even if all I left with was the shirt on my back.


This could be said about the entire south east coast of the US. From Galveston to Norfolk. Remember Andrew? Remember Hugo? Hell, the majority of Florida is only a wee above sea level. It's high spot is only 345 ft.

I consider New Orleans to be a unique part of the US and our culture and well worth preserving. I don't think it's chances of being doomed are any greater than the rest of the Caribbean.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Looks like Gustav is a category 3 again already and it hasn't even reached the Gulf of Mexico yet.
http://www.baynews9.com/images/news/200 ... v8308a.jpg

For reference, here's Katrinas' path with the hurricane intensity along the way. (intensity scale is towards the bottom-right)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katr ... _track.png

As you can see, Katrina was well into the Gulf of Mexico before it was a category 3 hurricane.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Okay, so there is still that chance should Gustav reach New Orleans that it will have died down a bit if we were to make the comparisons to Katrina.

You may be siding with Kc0tma, ATNO, but you picked up on different points to the ones i was commenting on and to be honest to a very slight extent i do agree. In saying that New Orleans is such a famous city for it's music and it was always a city i wanted to visit for that very reason. I only hope it's remotely like what it used to be before the Hurricane in 2005.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

It's a "high level" category 3 & is expected to strengthen to a category 4 this (Saturday) evening. It's supposed to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Excuse my ignorance, but how often does it go as high as a catagory 4 or 5 (if there is such a thing)?

There actually was hurricane winds off the west coast of Scotland a few years ago, weather we very very rarely ever get, i remember being outside trying to tie things down and that was living in the east coast. Never experienced winds like it before, got as high (in my area) as 100mph.

My bro's wife phoned from the states saying she had heard about it on the news saying how it was being described as a hurricane over there. I kinda laughed.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

SB wrote:
To be fair, i think you may have been too harsh here Kc0tma.


I need to offer an apology, when I was typing that last night I was tired and I'd had a few too many beers, so I was typing before thinking. But I still say that if you build a house in a flood plain, don't act surprised when you're under water. Sorry for being a jerk!
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Here you go SB.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm

The "Saffir-Simpson Category" is what we're refering to when we say a "cat 3" etc.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Thanks Joebert.

Just read a story on the BBC site quoting the Mayor regarding mandatory evacutation of New Orleans. Sounds as if this is much stronger than Katrina was... Apparently nobody has ever seen a storm like this before. Wow.

Expected to reach Catagory 5 over the golf of Mexico.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

It's starting to move faster which is good. Slow moving hurricanes are the worst because they last longer.

It's between a cat 4 and cat 5 now and it's just getting over the west tip of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

I've seen talk on the news that if there was such a thing as a category 6 hurricane, this would probably reach that.
The creator of the scale used says the reason it stops at 5 is because once you get past that it's pretty much total devistation.

So a cat 6 would pretty much just be a cat 5 that lasted a lot longer.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Any idea what is the cause for the route the hurricane takes or why it seems to get stronger and in the case faster across the gulf of Mexico? I was just looking at the Katrina route and this Gustav hurricane seems to be taking a similar route so far.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

It's because of the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. I think they call it the gulf stream loop, or something.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

SB wrote:
Any idea what is the cause for the route the hurricane takes or why it seems to get stronger and in the case faster across the gulf of Mexico?


In a nut shell. warm water to a hurricane is like gasoline to a fire.

The Gulf is like a giant puddle of gasoline, whereas Cuba and the tropics are like a rope that has been sprayed with gasoline, a wick of sorts.

Once a hurricane makes it to the Gulf of Mexico, it's at the mercy coldfronts coming down from the northern United States. Hurricanes don't like cold air. Cold air to hurricanes is like water to a gas fire.

Now if you know anything about gasoline fires, you know that if you try to put it out with water it has to be an overwhelmingly large amount of water or else it's just going to spread the fire around and make it worse.
It's the same thing with cold fronts and hurricanes, it's what happened with Katrina, the cold front that ran into it wasn't large/cold enough to kill the storm & it just ended up spreading the storm around.

About now is the time we usually don't watch the storm itself as much as we're watching the fronts from the north.

We already know we're screwed, it's just a matter of how screwed and exactly which ones of us are screwed.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

I see. Very well explained Joe.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

And there is a cold front coming down from the north which is also going to cause a lot of rain and flooding in the midwest of the US in addition to the damage the storm does on the coast
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Post 3+ Months Ago

So, ideally what you need is for the whole of the US be replaced with Scotlands weather system to keep the hurricane away.

You can take our weather system if you like, it's incredibly poor at the moment. I sit here with the rain battering away on the window like it has been all day. Infact, i read somewhere that this summer has been the wettest on record.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

How bad would it be if on September 11th 2008, amidst the chaos created by Gustav, terrorists were able to taint emergency supplies with anthrax or something ?
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Post 3+ Months Ago

I'm sure there are conspiracy theorists out there that will think that Gustav is an man made storm created by the American government in order to jack up oil prices for the profit of the politicians or something like that, especially if it hits land on Sept 11.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Oh no no no, it's going to make landfall in less than a week.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Last report I heard was that it was going to make landfall in 4 to 5 hours.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

Yep. Been watching for a bit. At least it stayed at Cat 3 and winds right now about 115. That's really not that bad of a hurricane. I was in one of that level, and never left my apartment.
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Post 3+ Months Ago

That was the strenght of winds that struck Scotland a few years ago when the media were reporting it to be Hurricane type weather.

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